Parlay Hedging (Pro)

Parlay hedges are more complex than straight-bet hedges, so this walks through the logic from the ground up. Using two games and moneyline bets only, I lay out every combination of outcomes, show why three bets cover all four of them, and go through each possible result so you can see that every one of them is profitable.

Parlay hedging is a Pro feature.

Allowing parlays on a bonus

In a bonus, go to the bottom and expand More targeting options. You can specify whether you want to use the bonus on straight bets, cross-game parlays, and/or same-game parlays. At the moment we only have two-leg cross-game and same-game parlays. Three legs are coming, and a lot of bonuses require three-leg parlays, so that will be a big unlock.

What a parlay hedge set looks like

On the Hedges tab, click into a bonus and you can see the parlay hedge sets are a little more complex than the straight-bet ones. The rest of this part walks through all of the logic so you understand it and trust it.

We are looking at two games, because we are now betting on combinations of things happening. Parlays are all or nothing: both things happen and you win, or you lose. If one hits and one does not, you lose. If neither hits, you lose. If both hit, you win.

To keep it easy, this example uses only moneyline bets, which means teams to win. The Royals are playing the Guardians: one team wins, one team loses. The Rockies are playing the White Sox: again, one wins, one loses. That gives four total combinations of things that can happen between these two games.

Four outcomes, three bets

Game 1	Game 2	Which bet wins
Royals win	Rockies win	FanDuel parlay: Royals + Rockies
Guardians win	Rockies win	bet365 parlay: Guardians + Rockies
Royals win	White Sox win	Single: White Sox
Guardians win	White Sox win	Single: White Sox

You will notice we only have three bets. That is because if the White Sox win and the Royals win, the White Sox single wins, and if the White Sox win and the Guardians win, that bet still wins. With a little clever trick we are able to hedge all four outcomes with only three bets.

Just like with straight-bet hedges, we are profitable no matter what happens. Exactly one of the three bets is going to win and the other two are going to lose, but regardless of which one wins, we profit on the whole set.

Every outcome, one more time

One bet always wins, and in this example you profit at least $134 in all three outcomes.

Royals win and Rockies win. The FanDuel two-leg parlay hits and wins $1,367. We lose the stakes from the other two bets, for a $217 net profit.

Guardians win and Rockies win. That is the bet365 parlay. It wins $1,034, we lose the bonus bet and we lose the $900 single, for $134 net profit. This is the worst case.

White Sox win, regardless of whether the Royals or the Guardians win with them. The single wins $419, we lose the $250 and the bonus bet, for a $169 net profit.